A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the country and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in universities but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. They writes two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates cover identity markers, taxes, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they support unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will eventually lose but each side has got something to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
